Saturday, May 13, 2006

Sliding Down the Poll: How Low Will He Go?

Slacktivist makes the case for 27%. Almost there!


Matthew said...

I've seen quite a few people commenting on Bush loosing the support of his conservative base. If that is true, would these people actually vote Democratic next time around? I wonder. They might be really peeved at Bush, but will that equate to a powershift? Probably only if they stay home and don't vote at all...

Jarred said...

Good question, Matthew. In a presidential election, I could see Bush's low approval ratings pushing a lot of conservative voters to vote for the Constitution Party's candidate (of course, I've heard that party isn't doing so well and is questioning it's own survival at themoment) or another third-party candidate. This would have the effect of splitting the conservative vote, which could possibly improve chances of a win for the Democrat Party candidate.

But we're not facing a presidential election, and I'm a bit more bewildered about what effect such a poor opinion of Bush and the Republican-controlled Congress will have on the upcoming mid-term election. I don't think the staunchest of conservative voters would swing over to vote for a Democrat. But I suppse a lot of the "swing voters" who originally felt Bush was the best choice for presidency might change their tune. So the question becomes one of who is it that's really quit supporting Bush? Are they staunch conservatives that absolutely despise the Democrat platform? Or is it mostly the more "moderate" conservatives who might be willing to give the Dems a chance if they think they're more likely to shake things up and/or set them aright again.

Andy said...

Well, Jarred, the NY Times today ran a front page story about how James Dobson is threatening to tell religious conservatives to stay home this November. Democrats don't need Republican votes, they need them to NOT vote.

Jarred said...

Ah, I wasn't aware of that.

Seems like a stupid thing for Dobson to do, though.

kr pdx said...

Kinda hard, when he might consider both major parties to be in bed with the Devil. I can't vote for a pro-abortion president (or any national power-figure), myself. Also, I am not ruling out the rest of the Republicans because Bush mangled his presidency and mis.

I often vote third party.

Miscellaneous from the West Coast (I know we are weird), everyone who seriously considered or actually voted for Ralph Nader (WAY back in 2000, I know), their second choice was Bush; Gore was never in it. Nader was preferred but totally not gonna happen.

Which made me especially bitter about the Dems taking their Gore-angst out on Nader, and especially resentful that they assumed so many people "should" have voted for them. Being called stupid because as a Catholic and a Woman I voted against "my" party was ... annoying. And stupid. But at least I didn't have to live with the extreme paternalistic tsktsking the Jews and African-Americans were subjected to in the media interviews.

Evidence suggests the in-power conservatives aren't the only ones who don't have a good hold (mental or functional) on "their" constituency.

More argument for the ridiculous outdatedness of both parties, I think.