Friday, October 29, 2004

Andy's Election Predictions

I'll get the obvious out of the way. Who will win the election? Impossible to say. The only thing that is clear is that Republicans are running scared. It's the only way to explain the tactics that GOP-affiliated election officials have been undertaking across the country in places like Colorado, Ohio and of course, Florida. Kerry definitely has a shot.

  • Florida. I think the electoral votes will go to Bush. It will be declared early as a red state. But after the chips fall, perhaps even after the election is decided, either way, discrepancies will be discovered that will be impossible to explain. I think Bush will "win" Florida by a margin that far exceeds any poll estimates. Basically, I think they'll cheat, and because of the no-paper trail electronic technology, there won't ever be a way to prove it. Conspiracy theories will abound.
  • Turnout. I think voter turnout will reach a record high this year, and I think particular increases will be seen in first-time voters, especially the under 25 set and African-Americans.
  • Surprises. I think at least one state that has long been considered an "out of play" lock for Bush will go blue. Additionally, I think there will be at least one major event or outcome that absolutely no one predicts.
  • Polls. I think everything we think we know about how people vote will be tossed out the window this year. This election will be unlike any we've ever seen.
  • Electoral vs. Popular. I think there is, sadly, a good possibility that once again Bush could take the electoral vote and lose the popular vote. If he does, I predict the margin by which he loses the popular vote will be substantial.
  • Instant winner vs. long legal battle. If there is a decisive victory with a clear winner on November 3rd, I think that it will be Kerry. If there is a long legal battle and the Supreme Court gets involved again, Bush will emerge victorious. Which of the two outcomes is more likely? I have no idea.
  • My accuracy. I also predict that at least two of my predictions, including this one, will be dead wrong.

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