Good Luck, Iraq

Well, it's election day in Iraq.

It's no secret I thought the war was not only a bad idea but a grotesque crime against reason and humanity, and even those that have found ways to justify this blunder to themselves have to concede that the execution has been dismal.

Having said that, I want to express my sincerest wishes to the people of Iraq for an election that they can accept as a true statement of their national voice, which for so long has been kept silent. I do hope with all my heart that this is a step forward. To those that risk their lives today...wow. God bless you for your courage and integrity.

I have heard a number of compelling reasons (the best from Thomas Friedman in the Times) why the election needed to be held now and not postponed; but I still believe the real reason the vote could not have been delayed was that it would have been yet another major embarrassment for George Bush.

We've been through these markers before. First we needed to capture Saddam Hussein, and that would take the gas out of the insurgency, we were told. Then it was the transfer of "sovereignty" to the current "government" last June. (Iraq's sovereignty was not ours to bestow, anyway; and besides, we gave it to a group of people picked by the occupying force. And they still have to defer to the U.S.) Now it's all about the elections.

George Bush keeps asking us to be patient. That's a funny thing from the most dangerously impatient president in history. Where was his patience when international weapons experts were scouring Iraq with unprecedented access? Where was his patience during the diplomatic process?

Given his track record, whatever happens today will be billed as a success. (God willing, maybe it will be.) But I don't think the Americans who view today's elections as an amazing leap forward in the global spread of democracy really understand what's going on over there. In many parts of the country, the candidates have had to remain anonymous for fear of their lives. You know, if you don't even know their name, how do you know what they stand for or what their vision is? They can't campaign in public, and they certainly can't debate. The polling station locations have been kept secret until the last possible minute. How would you like to vote in an election where you had to wait until the day before to find out where you needed to go, fully aware that you are literally risking your life in order to cast a vote for people you know nothing about?

The crazies like Zarqawi, who has taken to spouting comic-book character phrases about the evils of democracy, are not going to give up once the election is over. The candidates have to shed their anonymity today. The winners will be constant targets...and the losers will be, too, for having dared to participate.

Democracy is pretty impotent without security. And there is no security in Iraq.

Americans can't understand the dynamics at work there. Despite the fact that Republicans currently control the Presidency and both houses of Congress, for all intents and purposes there is a balance of power in this country. It will be a challenge, but it's possible Democrats can regain Congress in 2006; the 2008 race for the presidency is wide open. No one is saying a Democrat can't win. Even this President, who claims a "mandate," won with 51% of the vote.

The Sunnis in Iraq, who have controlled the country for the last thirty years or so, constitute about one-third of the population. In a majority-rule Democracy, they will never win. If they followed American congressional rules, they won't even have the votes for a filibuster.

That's not to say that Democracy won't work in Iraq. It can. But somehow -- and on this score we've failed utterly -- we have to convince a third of the population to voluntarily surrender to perpetual minority status, for the sake of the common good. That's going to be a very difficult argument to make.

We'll have to wait and see what the results of the election are, but it seems a safe assumption that most eligible Sunnis aren't going to vote, either out of fear or on principle. This means they'll have even less representation than they deserve. How do we get them to respect the new government as legitimate? That question has not been answered.