Andy's Election Predictions: Accuracy

You know, a lot of you think I'm smarter and savvier than I am. Really, I'm just a big BS artist. For the record, let's review the predictions I made about the election:

• Florida. I think the electoral votes will go to Bush. It will be declared early as a red state. But after the chips fall, perhaps even after the election is decided, either way, discrepancies will be discovered that will be impossible to explain. I think Bush will "win" Florida by a margin that far exceeds any poll estimates. Basically, I think they'll cheat, and because of the no-paper trail electronic technology, there won't ever be a way to prove it. Conspiracy theories will abound.
• RESULT: Well, there are conspiracy reports out there indicating that precincts using electronic voting machines with no paper trail or means of independent verification went consistently for Bush at a rate of 5% higher than results of exit polls. But of course...there's no way to prove it.
• Turnout. I think voter turnout will reach a record high this year, and I think particular increases will be seen in first-time voters, especially the under 25 set and African-Americans.
• RESULT: Well, the turnout was the largest since 1968. Haven't seen any data on the black vote in terms of increase, etc., but the much ballyhooed anticipation of a "youth vote" just didn't materialize; voters 18-24 voted in exactly the same percentage that they did in 2000. Interesting factoid, though: turnout was so large that more people voted for John Kerry this week than voted for Ronald Reagan in the blowout of 84.
• Surprises. I think at least one state that has long been considered an "out of play" lock for Bush will go blue. Additionally, I think there will be at least one major event or outcome that absolutely no one predicts.
• RESULT: Uh...oops. I personally anticipated a Kerry win in New Mexico, Arizona, Colorado, Missouri or Arkansas...just one of them. Oh well. The surprise was that there were no surprises. Does that count?
• Polls. I think everything we think we know about how people vote will be tossed out the window this year. This election will be unlike any we've ever seen.
• RESULT: Nope. The polls were right.
• Electoral vs. Popular. I think there is, sadly, a good possibility that once again Bush could take the electoral vote and lose the popular vote. If he does, I predict the margin by which he loses the popular vote will be substantial.
• RESULT: Bush won the popular vote by 4 million.
• Instant winner vs. long legal battle. If there is a decisive victory with a clear winner on November 3rd, I think that it will be Kerry. If there is a long legal battle and the Supreme Court gets involved again, Bush will emerge victorious. Which of the two outcomes is more likely? I have no idea.
• RESULT: Flat-out wrong.
• My accuracy. I also predict that at least two of my predictions, including this one, will be dead wrong.
• RESULT: Bingo! Probably just a coincidence, though.